Six Things to Watch in 2026

With 2026 underway, there are several things happening in Oregon that are important to keep an eye on. Here are just six thing to watch in 2026

Will ODOT get a meaningful fix?

In 2025, Governor Tina Kotek and her legislative allies passed damaging transportation tax and fee increases to fix a hole in the Oregon Department of Transportation’s (ODOT) budget. The increases ignored the voices of thousands of Oregonians who submitted testimonies and wrote emails to their legislators through OFC’s No Tax Oregon summer initiative.

In response, Representative Ed Diehl, Senator Bruce Starr, and Jason Williams, founder of the Taxpayers Association of Oregon, launched an initiative to refer four key areas of the passed legislation to the voters in November 2026. The referendum targeted the 15% gas tax increase, the doubled payroll transit tax, and the doubling of DMV title and registration fees. Oregonians made their will known once more in November as the Chief Petitioners achieved their goal of 100,000 signatures in one week with the final number of submitted signatures being over 250,000.

On January 7, Governor Kotek called for a full repeal of the legislation. The problem with that approach is that the Chief Petitioners never asked for a full repeal. There were parts of the bill that were good, including a repeal of tolling, a fix to the weight-mile tax imbalance, and an audit of ODOT. It’s now incumbent upon the governor and her allies to come to the table and negotiate a plan that keeps the good while eliminating tax and fee increases.

So will ODOT get a meaningful fix in 2026?

Which initiative petitions will land on the November 2026 ballot?

With the success of the transportation tax and fee referendum, eyes now turn to other initiative petitions (IP) attempting to qualify for the November 2026 ballot. There are several notable ongoing efforts to watch. The first is Vote Before Tolls (IP-31). IP-31 is a constitutional amendment to require a regional vote of the people before any new toll is implemented. It was begun as a response to 2017 HB2017 which allowed for the consideration of tolling in Oregon. Vote Before Tolls is retroactive, meaning any tolls that were or are instituted before passage of IP-31 would require a vote.

The second IP to watch is Let Us Paddle (IP-53). During the 2025 Regular Session, the Legislature passed HB2982 to extend preexistent paddle permits to all watercraft under the guise of funding the Aquatic Invasive Species Prevention Fund. The legislation is an expansion of an already burdensome regulatory overreach and IP-53 was created to repeal all paddle permits including those in place before the passage of HB2982.

The third IP to watch is People for the Elimination of Animal Cruelty Exemptions (PEACE) Act (IP-28). IP-28 removes exemptions against animal abuse, animal neglect, and animal sexual assault—all things that sound fine on the surface. However, IP-28 branding is deceptive as the removal of these exemptions would effectively ban the use of animals in food, research, hunting, and breeding. IP-28 claims to currently have 87,776 of its required 117,173 signatures.

There is also a potential effort to repeal Oregon’s estate tax. Known as the death tax, the estate tax is imposed upon inherited assets valued over $1 million. That may sound like a high bar, but often these assets are in the form of homes or land which have skyrocketed in value in the decades following creation of Oregon’s estate tax. The tax is a major disincentive to wealth creation and keeping that wealth in Oregon. Currently, only 17 states have an estate tax. Even California has eliminated theirs.

Which of these IPs will voters get a say on in November 2026?

Will Oregon restore local control over homelessness?

Another IP in the works addresses a topic worthy of its own section. In October, Oregon Business & Industry (OBI) filed the Local Control and Safety Act as an IP to repeal 2021 HB 3115, which handcuffed localities’ ability to address homelessness. The Legislature also has an opportunity to repeal HB3115 during the 2026 Regular Session.

The number of homeless people in Oregon has exploded over the last decade, creating public safety concerns for many Oregonians and Oregon businesses. The causes and solutions are highly debatable, but one thing is clear: homelessness is a local problem that is best addressed on the local level.

Will Oregon restore local control over homelessness? And will it be done legislatively or by the will of the people?

Will Oregonians be allowed to participate in the Federal Tax Credit Scholarship Program?

Included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by Congress in 2025 was a great tax credit that most Americans are not aware of. The Federal Tax Credit Scholarship Program allows for a federal income tax credit for those who donate toward non-profit K-12 scholarship granting organizations (SGO). The program is critical to expanding choice in K-12 education. The catch? States have to opt-in to the program through either an executive order from the governor or legislative action. Several states have already opted-in, including progressive Colorado.

Will Governor Kotek allow Oregonians to participate in this crucial federal tax credit program?

What handouts will public sector unions get this year?

The 2025 Regular Session was a bonanza for the public sector unions. Legislative progressives passed several handouts likely to hurt the average Oregonian and line the pockets of the unions. The only difference in the 2026 Regular Session is that legislators are limited on the number of bills they can introduce given it is the so-called Short Session. It’s likely there won’t be as many handouts as last year, but handouts there most assuredly will be.

What will lawmakers gift the public sector unions in 2026?

How abysmal will Oregon’s economic indicators be?

For several years, Oregon’s economic indicators have been—putting it nicely—in the toilet. Sometimes economic indicators can be a product of national economic trends, but Oregon’s negative prognosis has transcended national economic crises and several different federal administrations. In truth, Oregon’s downward trend is a direct result of 40 years of entrenched progressive leadership and the policy “solution” that come with that. This year should be no different. Key things to watch include Oregon’s private sector GDP growth, ease of business rankings, economic outlook indicators, education rankings, and the growth in tax revenue.

The upcoming year will see a lot of policy developments on many different fronts. Many of these developments will be critical in determining the direction our beautiful state takes, which leaves one final question: Will 2026 move Oregonians closer to or further from prosperity?